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Even in rising demand Robusta coffee exports may see falling prices

Robusta coffee exports

Robusta Coffee is mainly produced in India.  Still, the prices have been predicted to fall slightly in coming months, although the Robusta coffee consumption has been estimated to increase. In 2016-17, due to a monsoon deficit, as per the forecasts, the cultivation will be down.

By 4 % from $135/pound to $138.4 by March and to reach $140.7 by the month of May, the Arabica variety producers expect the price to be rising at the New York Intercontinental exchange. The Robusta price dip has been forecasted from $2103/tonne in the month of December 2016 to $2089 on January 17, at the London International Financial Futures and Options exchange, but by March 17 to $2095/tonne the prices may rise.

This year’s crops, as well as next year’s crop, have an impact as we have had bad weather this year. But this is not the reason for increasing the price; those are globally set. We are going to see the boom-¬bust pattern and right now are on obviously of the break stage. The query is who is going to endure the break, said by the President of the Coffee Exporters Association- Ramesh Rajah.

Less than the production cost is the forecasted prices. Because of the support of the government in such phase, the coffee producers of Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia had survived, said by Rajah.

After the monsoon (Arabica: 96,200 tonnes, Robusta: 220,500 tonnes) the coffee crop is forecasted to be at 316,700 tonnes which were previously at 320,000 tonnes. In April-December 2016, the exports were at 261,536 tonnes which were worth Rs 4,001 crore. The export quantity last year has been up from 219,232 tonnes which were worth Rs 3,621 crore. Of the re-¬exports, these numbers are inclusive.

In the forecast by 3045 tonnes and 1000 tonnes respectively, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have shown a cut. Forecast by 850 tonnes, Kerela has however increased. From the coffee year 2012-13(October-September), the average yearly growth rate of global consumption is 1.3%. in the 2015-16 coffee years, the coffee consumption was a total of about 151.3 million bags of coffee (each bag is 60 kg in weight) which were more than 149395 bags in the previous year. By 5-6% every year, the demand for coffee is increasing among Indians. In 2015-16, 1.35 million bags coffee was consumed by Indians.

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